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试图在金融市场多年来最危险的时期之一度过难关的投资者和交易员，几乎肯定会在今年下半年面临更大的波动。一个主要原因是，似乎很少有人准备好应对美国通货膨胀的风
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险。截至5月份，美国的通货膨胀率已经达到8.6%的近41年高点，可能会顽强地抵制美联储(Federal Reserve)加息。这种动态在美国过去的高通胀时期一次又一次地上演——在20世纪70年代时任美联储主席阿瑟·伯恩斯(Arthur Burns)领导下;20世纪70年代末，在他的继任者g·威廉·米勒短暂的任期内;甚至在20世纪80年代保罗·沃尔克的领导下。阅读:历史表明，即使美联储将利率上调至10%以上，通胀也可能需要数年时间才能恢复正常。总体而言，金融市场参与者越来越多地希望缓解通胀压力。这一点从联邦基金期货交易中可以明显看出，市场目前预计美联储将在明年3月左右达到加息周期的峰值，届时美联储的主要政策利率目标可能会升至3.5%至3.75%或更高，而目前的水平为1.5%至1.75%，然后政策制定者将在明年降息。Expectations for cooling price gains can also be seen in 5-, 10- and 30-year break-even rates trending below 3%, according to Tradeweb — levels which imply the Fed will ultimately win its war on inflation. And hope can even be found in the greater weight that investors are giving to a possible U.励志英文歌曲S. recession — which, in and of itself, is supposed to cool off inflation.
But in the corner of the financial market wher&#
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101; traders stand to make as much as $1 million on a single trade by getting inflation just right — the inflation-derivatives market —the annual CPI rate is seen as running hot for at least five more months: As of Tuesday, fixings traders were pricing in an annual CPI rate that hits 8.9% for June, 8.8% in July, almost 9% in August, 8.9% in September, and 8.1% in October. This is the case despite the chance that the Fed might deliver another 75 basis point hike next month, and policy makers remain in a vigilant policy stance.Fixings traders also don’t expect inflation to drop below 7.2% for the rest of this year. That’s in contrast to the expectation of 54 economists in The Wall Street Journal’s June survey, who see annual CPI dro 日本飞鼠2;ping to just below 7% in December.
“The
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market has been looking to rallies to make up for losses this year, and it’s fair to say it isn’t ready for inflation that proves resistant to Fed rate hikes,” said Rob Daly, director of fixed income for Glenmede Investment Management in Philadelphia, which oversees about $4.5 billion in fixed-income assets. “I think we’re in for a rough ride for 2022. It’s going to continue to be a very volatile year, whether it’s rates or risk assets.”“The question for the market is, `Is inflation going to come down and how much will it come down?’ If inflation comes down and seems to stabilize at lower levels, the market can get traction,” Daly said via phone. “But you need to see a rate-of-change dynamic over multiple periods in order to get more comfortable with putting money at risk.”
This year’s carnage in bonds has
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already put fixed-income exchange-traded funds on pace to post their worst first half on 佰德利棋牌record, according to Dow Jones Market Data, and Daly says it’s possible to see further losses in the second half as investors weigh the growth outlook for the economy. Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market fell into a bear market earlier this month and all three major indexes DJIA,+0.27% COMP,-0.03% SPX,-0.07% gave up early opening gains on Tuesday after a weaker-than-expected consumer confidence report.Big-name economists like Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen aren’t the only ones acknowledging they got it wrong on inflation. So is ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, who told CNBC on Tuesday that she dramatically underestimated the severity of inflation and that the U.S. is likely already in a recession.
Nonetheless, Jay
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Hatfield, chief executive of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, and Steve Englander, head of global G-10 FX research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, are among those holding on to the view that inflation could peak in the second half and slow in coming months.Already, “demand is softening, wages are lagging and oil demand will be coming off — all of those have implications for prices,” Englander said via phone. Even if annual readings continue to come in close to 9% for a period of time, it’s the month-over-month changes and core readings excluding food and energy that matter more in his mind. However, he said, “if we’re wrong, that means the market is underpriced for such a scenario.”
Meanwhile, Hatfield points to the falling prices of commodities ranging from grain to aluminum and steel, as reasons to think that inflation pressures might ease in July’s data, which is released in August. Even if higher shelter costs are “stickier” and may support a more pessimistic view on inflation, he said the greater risk to financial markets isn’t inflation that keeps going higher, but in the chances that the Fed commits a policy error by hiking rates too much. He expects the Fed to pause its rate-hike campaign at the end of the year, when the fed-funds rate target is around 3%, before cutting interest rates in 2023 because “Europe will probably go into a deep recession and the rest of the world will crack before the U.S. does,” he said.
Trouble remains, though, if inflation eases, yet doesn’t ease enough. “It’s not the absolute level of inflation that matters most from here, but the stickiness. That’s where the rubber meets the road,” said Chief Investment Officer Neil Azous of Rareview Capital in Las Vegas. “I believe inflation will stay elevated for longer, above 5%, and the Fed will have to react to that. Inflation will remain the overriding factor, not weaker growth and recession risk. When inflation remains elevated 普拉达男鞋 for an extended period, it becomes more entrenched in long-term expectations, the outcome the Fed fears most.”
Continued inflation readings of around 9% would theoretically mean that the terminal interest rate,
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or level where interest rates end up, “will be higher than 4% and potentially on its way to 5%,” Azous said via phone. Still, he says, the “truth will probably lie somewhere in the middle” of the outlook expressed by fixings traders and the expectations of economists.
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